Payment trends in 2025 and predictions for 2026

Hands above a Christal ball with payment prediction 2026

Payments never stands still. At the start of 2025, we shared our predictions on where the industry was heading, and you can revisit them here, but now it is time to look forward.

Real-time payments are becoming the norm, digital currencies are edging closer to everyday use, and merchants are clearer than ever on what they need: speed, control, and flexibility. This is more than a recap. It is a launchpad into 2026, a chance to see what will matter next year, what will change the game, and how the industry will keep moving forward. Because in payments, the future is already here.

Key Insights

Invisible payments are increasingly important, but merchants must maintain control to make them work effectively.
Security in 2026 will be smarter, AI-driven, and adaptable to evolving risks and regulations.
Real-time payments are no longer just about speed, but about giving merchants flexibility and operational control.
Offering choice across payment methods and wallets is a competitive advantage only when it is manageable and scalable.
Orchestration sits above all rails, turning payments into a programmable, outcome-driven capability for businesses.

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Payments moving into the background

2025 prediction

Payments would become invisible and embedded with less focus on checkout and more on seamless experiences across digital and in-store. Orchestration was expected to be the key to managing complexity.

What we saw

Payments did move further into the background, but expectations grew even faster. Merchants expected everything to just work. Fragmentation did not disappear, it intensified. Ownership of the in-store experience became even more important. At the same time, the limits of hardware and terminals reminded us that technology alone does not solve everything. Real-world constraints still shape what merchants can deliver.

2026 outlook

Invisible payments still matter, but only when merchants stay in control. Orchestration is no longer optional. Eddie Johnson, CTO of Aevi, explains:

"We spent years pretending hardware was the bottleneck, and then Android reminded us it is the payments, schemes and certs, not device limits. In 2026, more product roadmaps will be blocked by terminal reality than lack of features."

In other words, the checkout didn't break...the assumptions behind it did. The winners will be those who can adapt without rebuilding their stack.

Smarter ways to stay secure

2025 prediction

Authentication would get smarter, leveraging data and risk signals to improve the experience for genuine customers.

What we saw

Fraud continued to grow, regulations kept raising the bar, and strong customer authentication stayed effective while exposing gaps in legacy setups. Security had to move faster, protect more, and remain invisible to good customers.

2026 outlook

Security will become more contextual, dynamic, and AI-driven. As Head of Cyber Security at Aevi, Salih Köse, explains:

"Cybersecurity in payments in 2026 will be defined by how effectively we operationalize AI not just to respond faster but to make better risk decisions."

Salih goes on to highlight how Aevi has applied these ideas in practice.

“At Aevi, 2025 marked a turning point with AI integrated across our Cyber Security Operations. In 2026, automation, continuous risk assessment, and internally developed multi-agent AI solutions will scale security without losing control or context."

He also emphasizes how organisations can stay resilient against rising threats:

“AI threats are increasing in volume and sophistication, but organisations that implement security best practices remain resilient. Holistic visibility, correlating signals across EDR, CNAPP, XDR, vulnerability management, and cloud environments, will differentiate strong security programs. Internal AI-assisted decision layers keep risk ownership where it belongs, avoiding dependency on external vendors."

Real-time payments are no longer a nice-to-have

2025 prediction

Real-time payments would grow, faster settlement would become standard, and legacy models would feel pressure.

What we saw

Real-time rails expanded, but adoption varied. Merchants were asking not just whether it was instant, but how it fit into operations. Interoperability remained a challenge.

2026 outlook

Real-time payments are as much about staying in control as they are about being fast. Orchestration across multiple rails will define who can scale internationally. Flexibility beats raw performance.

"Merchants are done with ‘it authorised, trust us’ as an answer. In 2026, the winners are the platforms that can explain every payment (in real time!) like an accountant, not a magician."

Eddie Johnson, CTO, Aevi

Giving customers the payment options they want

2025 prediction

More payment methods, wallets, and local preferences would become critical.

What we saw

Choice increased, but so did operational complexity. Merchants struggled to manage change, and the true cost of adding just one more method became visible.

2026 outlook

Choice only matters if it is manageable. Modular, future-ready platforms outperform rigid stacks. Payments strategy continues to rise to board-level conversations.

What really stood out this year

The pace at which in-store innovation returned. How quickly expectations shifted from adoption to optimisation. And how often flexibility came up in conversations with partners and customers. You can hear more about these topics in our interviews below:

Looking forward to 2026

2025 proved that orchestration, flexibility, and control are essential. 2026 is about applying those lessons at scale, not by doing more, but by doing it better.

2026 will be defined by ownership over decisions, infrastructure that adapts as regulation, fraud, and consumer behaviour evolve, and payments as a strategic lever rather than a background function. Third-party risk will rise as ecosystems become more cloud-native and AI-enabled, making the management of interconnected SaaS, cloud, and vendor dependencies a critical capability.

Mike Camerling, CEO at Aevi, shares his thoughts:

"In 2026, payments orchestration will move from static routing to decision-driven routing, where each transaction is steered based on cost, risk, regulation, device capability and settlement needs. Orchestration platforms like Aevi’s will sit clearly above acquirers, wallets and A2A rails, optimising outcomes rather than managing connections. For us, this reinforces orchestration as the control layer of commerce, separating acceptance from processing and turning payments into a programmable, outcome-driven capability."

This highlights that orchestration is no longer just a behind-the-scenes function. It is the layer that turns payments into a programmable, outcome-driven capability, giving merchants the control and flexibility they need to act with confidence.

With orchestration, flexibility, and control at the heart of payments, 2026 is set to be a year where merchants and businesses can not only keep up, but also get ahead.

Curious how this could apply to your setup today or in 2026? Get in touch and let’s explore it together.